The Toronto Maple Leafs will play their sixth back-to-back of the season as they look to bounce back from a hard fought loss against the Washington Capitals. They have fared well in back-to-back spots so far with a record of 3-1-1, but have struggled on the road with a mark of just 4-4-2.
The Pittsburgh Penguins will also be playing their second night of a back-to-back, after suffering a 4-2 loss to the New York Rangers on Friday in New York. They have played to a record of 5-4-1 over the last ten, and are 7-6-2 on home ice this season.
I&#8217;ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
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Maple Leafs vs Penguins Odds
<ul class="gmail-mb-5 gmail-list-disc gmail-pl-8">
<li class="gmail-">Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: +120</li>
<li class="gmail-">Penguins Moneyline Odds: -140</li>
<li class="gmail-">Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220), Penguins +1.5 (-180)</li>
<li class="gmail-">Game Total: 6 goals (over -120, under +100)</li>
</ul>
Toronto Maple Leafs
While it wasn&#8217;t necessarily a performance to be ashamed of, the Leafs weren&#8217;t at their best Friday against the Capitals. Washington held a 3.95 to 2.11 edge in expected goals, and generated 21 shots while allowing just 24 against.
Good teams stop losing streaks before they start, and head coach Craig Berube has done a good job of bouncing back from losses thus far. The Leafs are 6-1-2 following a loss this season, which has been a big part of their Atlantic Divsion leading 16-8-2 start to the campaign.
Max Pacioretty is expected to return from a ten-game absence in this matchup, which will presumably means either Nick Robertson or Ryan Reaves are coming out of the lineup.
Jake McCabe has been placed on injured reserve retroactive to November 30. While the Leafs have played to a record of 2-1-0 in his brief absence, his presence on the back end has clearly been missed and that point was more prevalent as they took on a higher quality team last night.
The Leafs power play failed to break through in two opportunities in last night&#8217;s game, which was noteworthy as a powerplay marker could have been the difference. Since Auston Matthews returned to the lineup Berube has stuck with the five forward powerplay look, and in those four matchups they hold a 12.5% success rate.
Joseph Woll is expected to get the start in this matchup and will have the opportunity to a record a seventh consecutive victory. He has played to a .922 save percentage and 2.11 GAA across nine appearances this season.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins enter this matchup in a better run of play, as they have won four of the last five games and played respectably versus a desperate Rangers side. One key reason for their improved play has been the decision to healthy scratch Ryan Graves on the back end, who has struggled mightily this season and is looking like a disastrous signing from Kyle Dubas.
In those five games the Penguins have played to an expected goal share of 53.96% and allowed just 2.62 xGF/60. Still, they have allowed three actual goals against per game in those matchups, and they played some soft offensive sides in favorable spots. T
he Flames haven&#8217;t scored four goals in a game since October 13th, and were playing night two of a back-to-back. The Bruins rank 28th in goals per game this season. The Canucks were playing back-to-back and tallied four goals, and in the only truly difficult matchup the Panthers scored four goals and put up 41 shots on goal.
The Penguins slightly improved defensive play could prove to be a small blip on the radar. Their current roster composition still looks highly concerning. Kris Letang has struggled defensively in even strength play, and his drop-off has been exacerbated as he has to try and carry Matt Grzelcyk on the top pairing.
While Sidney Crosby and the Pens&#8217; top line has been effective overall in generating 4.58 xGF/60, they are still allowing plenty of chances against with 3.63 xGA/60.
Tristan Jarry is expected to get the start in goal for the Penguins in this matchup. He holds an .884 save percentage and 3.88 GAA across nine appearances this season.
Best Bets for Leafs vs Penguins
The Penguins have been far more competitive of late, with a record of 4-1-0 over the last five games and solid underlying numbers. The decision to healthy scratch Graves has made a significant difference and is one key reason they have been more competent defensively.
Still, the Leafs overall game has been significantly more well rounded this season and they should be able to generate plenty of chances in this matchup. The Penguins have caught some out of form offences in good spots recently though, and it seems reasonable to look at a larger sample of their play which tells us defensively they are well below average.
At -161 I lean with the Maple Leafs, and wouldn&#8217;t argue with anyone who wanted to back them in this matchup.
Whether Berube opts to shuffle his top two lines and play Matthews with Nylander or Marner, Matthews is in a great spot to score in this matchup. While Crosby&#8217;s line has been good, they are still allowing plenty of chances against, and the Penguins don&#8217;t have a defensive pairing likely to fare well against Matthews.
At +110 Matthews is priced as the second most likely player to score on today&#8217;s slate (Sam Reinhart is +100 versus San Jose), but there&#8217;s a good case to be made that Matthews deserves to be even more heavily favored to score than he is.
Over the last two regular seasons Matthews has scored at least one goal in 54% of his 99 games played. If you were simply backing him at +110 in all of those matchups it would be a highly profitable strategy, and as noted this is a plus matchup for the Leafs top stars.
Best Bets: Auston Matthews Anytime Goal +110 (Sports Interaction, Play to +100)
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The Toronto Maple Leafs will play their sixth back-to-back of the season as they look to bounce back from a hard fought loss against the Washington Capitals. They have fared well in back-to-back spots so far with a record of 3-1-1, but have struggled on the road with a mark of just 4-4-2.

The Pittsburgh Penguins will also be playing their second night of a back-to-back, after suffering a 4-2 loss to the New York Rangers on Friday in New York. They have played to a record of 5-4-1 over the last ten, and are 7-6-2 on home ice this season.

I'll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
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Maple Leafs vs Penguins Odds
<ul class="gmail-mb-5 gmail-list-disc gmail-pl-8">
 	<li class="gmail-">Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: +120</li>
 	<li class="gmail-">Penguins Moneyline Odds: -140</li>
 	<li class="gmail-">Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220), Penguins +1.5 (-180)</li>
 	<li class="gmail-">Game Total: 6 goals (over -120, under +100)</li>
</ul>
Toronto Maple Leafs

While it wasn't necessarily a performance to be ashamed of, the Leafs weren't at their best Friday against the Capitals. Washington held a 3.95 to 2.11 edge in expected goals, and generated 21 shots while allowing just 24 against.

Good teams stop losing streaks before they start, and head coach Craig Berube has done a good job of bouncing back from losses thus far. The Leafs are 6-1-2 following a loss this season, which has been a big part of their Atlantic Divsion leading 16-8-2 start to the campaign.

Max Pacioretty is expected to return from a ten-game absence in this matchup, which will presumably means either Nick Robertson or Ryan Reaves are coming out of the lineup.

Jake McCabe has been placed on injured reserve retroactive to November 30. While the Leafs have played to a record of 2-1-0 in his brief absence, his presence on the back end has clearly been missed and that point was more prevalent as they took on a higher quality team last night.

The Leafs power play failed to break through in two opportunities in last night's game, which was noteworthy as a powerplay marker could have been the difference. Since Auston Matthews returned to the lineup Berube has stuck with the five forward powerplay look, and in those four matchups they hold a 12.5% success rate.

Joseph Woll is expected to get the start in this matchup and will have the opportunity to a record a seventh consecutive victory. He has played to a .922 save percentage and 2.11 GAA across nine appearances this season.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins enter this matchup in a better run of play, as they have won four of the last five games and played respectably versus a desperate Rangers side. One key reason for their improved play has been the decision to healthy scratch Ryan Graves on the back end, who has struggled mightily this season and is looking like a disastrous signing from Kyle Dubas.

In those five games the Penguins have played to an expected goal share of 53.96% and allowed just 2.62 xGF/60. Still, they have allowed three actual goals against per game in those matchups, and they played some soft offensive sides in favorable spots. T

he Flames haven't scored four goals in a game since October 13th, and were playing night two of a back-to-back. The Bruins rank 28th in goals per game this season. The Canucks were playing back-to-back and tallied four goals, and in the only truly difficult matchup the Panthers scored four goals and put up 41 shots on goal.

The Penguins slightly improved defensive play could prove to be a small blip on the radar. Their current roster composition still looks highly concerning. Kris Letang has struggled defensively in even strength play, and his drop-off has been exacerbated as he has to try and carry Matt Grzelcyk on the top pairing.

While Sidney Crosby and the Pens' top line has been effective overall in generating 4.58 xGF/60, they are still allowing plenty of chances against with 3.63 xGA/60.

Tristan Jarry is expected to get the start in goal for the Penguins in this matchup. He holds an .884 save percentage and 3.88 GAA across nine appearances this season.

Best Bets for Leafs vs Penguins

The Penguins have been far more competitive of late, with a record of 4-1-0 over the last five games and solid underlying numbers. The decision to healthy scratch Graves has made a significant difference and is one key reason they have been more competent defensively.

Still, the Leafs overall game has been significantly more well rounded this season and they should be able to generate plenty of chances in this matchup. The Penguins have caught some out of form offences in good spots recently though, and it seems reasonable to look at a larger sample of their play which tells us defensively they are well below average.

At -161 I lean with the Maple Leafs, and wouldn't argue with anyone who wanted to back them in this matchup.

Whether Berube opts to shuffle his top two lines and play Matthews with Nylander or Marner, Matthews is in a great spot to score in this matchup. While Crosby's line has been good, they are still allowing plenty of chances against, and the Penguins don't have a defensive pairing likely to fare well against Matthews.

At +110 Matthews is priced as the second most likely player to score on today's slate (Sam Reinhart is +100 versus San Jose), but there's a good case to be made that Matthews deserves to be even more heavily favored to score than he is.

Over the last two regular seasons Matthews has scored at least one goal in 54% of his 99 games played. If you were simply backing him at +110 in all of those matchups it would be a highly profitable strategy, and as noted this is a plus matchup for the Leafs top stars.

Best Bets: Auston Matthews Anytime Goal +110 (Sports Interaction, Play to +100)

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