The Maple Leafs had a very specific need for their blueline. Maybe two specific needs for their blueline. Maybe two specific needs and one very strong preference. On paper, Brandon Carlo checked those boxes. Carlo is a right-shot defenceman that pushes or at least competes with Oliver Ekman-Larsson in the top four, while eliminating the need to rely on a bottom-pairing made up of a combination of Simon Benoit, Philippe Myers, Jani Hakanpaa or the Marlie of the Month. But the goal was to find someone who fits the archetype that Morgan Rielly has had success with throughout his career, and that’s Brandon Carlo.
These are the numbers that Carlo brings to that relationship:
Notably the Maple Leafs are buying in a bit of a low point. And here’s where some context comes in. The Bruins presently sit 23rd in the league. That’s new for them. Their goals against is the 12th worst in the league, whichh is very different from the peak days of the Linus Ullmark/Jeremy Swayman tandem. And the context for the previous two years includes a 7th-best record in the league last year and a mind-blowing 135 point season in 2022-23 to win the President’s Trophy. The mighty have fallen and Leafs fans love to see it, but maybe they don’t see it as much in the numbers of a defenceman they just gave up a 1st-round pick and top prospect for.
Another big piece of context for Carlo’s numbers in the previous two seasons verus the present is that his partner was primarily Hampus Lindholm. Lindholm’s injury this year has resulted in Carlo playing primarily with Nikita Zadorov. Going from one of the most well-rounded two-way defencemen in the game to the Bruins (somewhat out of necessity) doubling up on a stay-at-home pairing is generally going to result in a decline in numbers. (The decline in Carlo’s hitting rate could come from the Bruins leaning more on Zadorov for physical play in that pairing.) You can see where the against numbers stayed decent enough, but the differential percentages declined with a Zadorov and Carlo defensive pairing not being particularly helpful with moving the puck up the ice. You can see how Morgan Rielly would help with that but there also needs to be some acknowledgment that Morgan Rielly will be the worst defensive zone partner Carlo has played with since Mike Reilly.
Using Puck IQ’s breakdown of competition levels, Carlo and Zadorov have seen the opposition’s top line more frequently than any other blueliners since Lindholm’s injury. And combined with middle six competition, that makes up 70% of the 5v5 competition that Carlo has seen, definitely classifying him as 3/4 defenceman who can tackle top pairing assignments with the right partner and it will certainly take some time before declaring if Morgan Rielly is that right partner or not. Thankfully the Leafs have a solid tandem in Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev that takes the pressure off.
Carlo’s icetime has dropped this year from last season but remains in-line with his 2022-23 numbers and has bounced back and forth between the just under 19 and just under 20 minute average throughout his career. The utilization definitely puts him at around that 4/5 defenceman on the depth chart and those numbers are influenced by the fact that Carlo, while a penalty killing go-to, is not someone you want to use on the powerplay or in regular season overtime situations.
Recognizing the grains of salt required when looking at NHL Edge data and what we should take away from it, there are a couple of things worth pointing out. As frequently with stay-at-home defencemen, the speed bursts are down. His role is to always be between the puck and the goal, and there is nothing in Brandon Carlo’s game that says he’s going to pinch offensively and while he is a big hitter, he doesn’t step out of position (at least not excessively) to make those plays.
Seeing the high top speed requires some toning down of enthusiasm as the number of players clustered in that range of speed is more about just checking the box that Carlo can absolutely keep up in the NHL.
The top speed for shot is also somewhat encouraging as the Leafs are light on defencemen who can break that 90 mph barrier and similar to how the Leafs would occasionally tee up Luke Schenn to hammer the puck due to a lack of alternative on the point, Carlo might create some offence and benefit from playing with a net presence like Matthew Knies or a deflection expert like John Tavares. Still, any offence is a bonus not an expectation.
The biggest question around Carlo might be, if it doesn’t work out with Rielly, who is the Plan B partner here? It seems like the two options are fairly obvious.
If it doesn’t work with Rielly, do the Leafs try to revert to their initial plan of having Rielly play with Tanev, in which case McCabe and Carlo seem like an upgraded version of what the Bruins were doing with the Zadorov and Carlo pairing. McCabe is far more capable positionally and even with the puck than Zadorov, but it takes on the feel of a shutdown pairing.
In contrast, Ekman-Larsson, while nowhere near the same class as Hampus Lindholm, is a bit more of a two-way defenceman and there is potential that the duo could thrive together assuming that their workload is focused more around middle competition than elite.
Craig Berube giving the Rielly-Carlo pairing anything less than a 10 game run to see what they have before the playoffs seems unlikely though. That’s why Carlo is here and any attempt to move away from that would just be to give Brandon a bit of time to adjust before throwing him into the competition he plays Rielly against. That’s not to say this will be exclusive and it will be interesting to see what happens in bench shortening and protect a lead/come from behind situations.
Carlo coming in with term is also a plus, as is the cost control and the stability the Leafs look to have with their old-ish blueline. As with Laughton, even if the short term doesn’t yield the results the Leafs are hoping for, Carlo being a planned part of the future is beneficial for the Leafs.