<p>After a close loss in Game 3, the <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/combinations">Toronto Maple Leafs</a> played their worst game of the series in <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/6-takeaways-toronto-maple-leafs-florida-panthers-game-4-woll-responds-bright-losing-effort">Game 4</a>, and now return home with their series versus the Florida Panthers tied at two.</p>
<p>The home team has won all four games in this series, and teams that win Game 5 win the series over 75 percent of the time historically. The Leafs are still in a good situation entering tonight&#8217;s matchup considering those statistics, but they do remain underdogs for a fifth consecutive game in this matchup.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.</p>
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
<h2><strong>Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Odds</strong></h2>
<ul class="gmail-mb-5 gmail-list-disc gmail-pl-8">
<li class="gmail-"><strong class="gmail-text-lg gmail-font-bold">Panthers Moneyline Odds:</strong> -135</li>
<li class="gmail-"><strong class="gmail-text-lg gmail-font-bold">Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds:</strong> +115</li>
<li class="gmail-"><strong class="gmail-text-lg gmail-font-bold">Puck Line Odds: </strong>Panthers -1.5 (+185), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-227)</li>
<li class="gmail-"><strong class="gmail-text-lg gmail-font-bold">Game Total:</strong> 5.5 goals (over -120, under +100)</li>
</ul>
<table class="border-spacing-2 table-auto border-collapse border border-black" style="width: 692px;">
<thead class="article-view__table-headers">
<tr class="">
<th class="" style="width: 427px;">Regular Season Stats</th>
<th class="" style="width: 140px;">Panthers</th>
<th class="" style="width: 125px;">Maple Leafs</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Goals For per 60 minutes (5-on-5)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.32 (22nd)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.66 (8th)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.09 (4th)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.01 (3rd)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Expected Goals per 60 (5-on-5)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.76 (6th)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.66 (8th)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Expected Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.44 (2nd)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.57 (16th)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">High-Danger Scoring Chances % (5-on-5)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">53.16 (7th)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">50.65% (15th)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Goal Differential</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">+29 (10th)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">+37 (8th)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Power Play %</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">23.5% (13th)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">24.8% (9th)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Penalty Kill %</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">80.7% (10th)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">77.9% (17th)</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Save Percentage (Sergei Bobrovsky vs. Anthony Stolarz)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">.906</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">.926</div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Goals Saved Above Expectation (Bobrovsky vs. Stolarz)</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">+7.2</div>
</td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">+25.8</div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2><strong>Florida Panthers</strong></h2>
<p>After allowing 13 goals against in the first three games of this series, Sergei Bobrovsky and the Panthers battened things down in Game 4 en route to a shutout victory.</p>
<p>Florida allowed only six high-danger scoring chances in Game 4 in even-strength play and only 1.16 expected goals against. The Panthers allowed only 2.25 xGA/60 during their 2024 Stanley Cup run, which suggests it&#8217;s not overly surprising that they were able to clean things up defensively compared to earlier in the series.</p>
<p>The Panthers&#8217; dominant duo of Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart had their best game of the series in Game 4, showing off why they are both Selke Trophy nominees. The Leafs generated next to nothing when they were on the ice, after faring quite well against the Barkov line <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/matthews-won-minutes-easily-barkov-game-1-captain-matchup-game-2">in Game 1</a>-2 in Toronto.</p>
<p>It has been confirmed that <a href="https://x.com/Arunthings/status/1922686669561405761">Evan Rodrigues will miss this matchup</a>, and Jesper Boqvist will likely take over his spot on the top line.</p>
<p>Sergei Bobrovsky had his best start of the series in Game 4, stopping all 23 shots faced. While the Leafs generated very little at even strength in Game 4, Bobrovsky made some high-quality saves in timely moments while his team was shorthanded. He now holds a -1.6 GSAx rating and .888 save percentage this postseason.</p>
<h2><strong>Toronto Maple Leafs</strong></h2>
<p>The Leafs&#8217; top offensive stars failed to deliver in Game 4, and, as always seems to be the case, that has become the main talking point entering this critical matchup. Auston Matthews failed to convert on any of his seven shot attempts, and is now shooting just 9.3% in his career during the playoffs, compared to a mark of 15.8% in the regular season.</p>
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330">With a cap hit of over 13 million dollars, fans and media are right to expect Matthews to produce. In terms of true goal differential, though, the Leafs&#8217; top line has been downright excellent this season, and it seems the bottom six is not drawing enough criticism. No recent cup winner has had a bottom-six play to a negative goal differential in the playoffs.</div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330">Momentary lapses in production from the Leafs&#8217; top stars would not always stand out so greatly if the team was receiving better play from <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/onus-matthews-marner-toronto-maple-leafs-lack-depth-scoring-consistent-issue">further down the lineup card</a>.</div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330">The team <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/scenes-toronto-maple-leafs-morning-skate-ekman-larsson-play-game-5-berube-hints-game-time-decisions">did not state any potential lineup changes ahead of tonight&#8217;s matchup</a>, but Craig Berube could adjust his bottom six, which seems quite reasonable.</div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330">Anthony Stolarz is reportedly progressing and could potentially play in Game 6, but Joseph Woll is likely to remain the starter in this matchup. Woll holds a +0.4 GSAx rating and .893 save percentage this postseason.</div>
<h2><strong>Best Bets for Panthers vs Leafs Game 2</strong></h2>
<p>While the Panthers have owned more of the overall play in this series, it is entirely reasonable that this series is knotted at two entering Game 5.</p>
<p>The Leafs have been more comfortable playing in the defensive zone under Berube this season, which is surely in part due to the fact that they have received such strong play in goal from Stolarz and Woll. They have high-end offensive talents to convert on chances at a high rate and have done so this postseason.</p>
<p>The Panthers were very sharp defensively at even strength in Game 4, after some surprisingly loose defensive play earlier on in the series. While the Leafs are capable of better offensive play than we saw in Game 4, the Panthers have been a dominant side defensively in each of the last two postseasons, and it seems more likely that they will continue to play at higher level in that regard than we saw early on in this series.</p>
<p>In terms of sides, it would be Toronto or pass for me, as this matchup feels like more of a coin flip than oddsmakers are expecting.</p>
<p>Rather than pick a side, though, I&#8217;d prefer to bet this game to feature under 1.5 first-period goals, a play that was effective for us at the tail end of the Ottawa series. In the highest pressure situations, teams tend to play a more conservative style and look to keep things tight defensively, and in general it&#8217;s been the offence that has dried up for this Leafs core in the later games of series historically.</p>
<p><strong>Best Bet: First Period Under 1.5 Total Goals -110 (Sports Interaction, Play to -120)</strong></p>


After a close loss in Game 3, the <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/combinations">Toronto Maple Leafs</a> played their worst game of the series in <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/6-takeaways-toronto-maple-leafs-florida-panthers-game-4-woll-responds-bright-losing-effort">Game 4</a>, and now return home with their series versus the Florida Panthers tied at two.

The home team has won all four games in this series, and teams that win Game 5 win the series over 75 percent of the time historically. The Leafs are still in a good situation entering tonight's matchup considering those statistics, but they do remain underdogs for a fifth consecutive game in this matchup.

I'll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
<h2><strong>Panthers vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Odds</strong></h2>
<ul class="gmail-mb-5 gmail-list-disc gmail-pl-8">
 	<li class="gmail-"><strong class="gmail-text-lg gmail-font-bold">Panthers Moneyline Odds:</strong> -135</li>
 	<li class="gmail-"><strong class="gmail-text-lg gmail-font-bold">Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds:</strong> +115</li>
 	<li class="gmail-"><strong class="gmail-text-lg gmail-font-bold">Puck Line Odds: </strong>Panthers -1.5 (+185), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-227)</li>
 	<li class="gmail-"><strong class="gmail-text-lg gmail-font-bold">Game Total:</strong> 5.5 goals (over -120, under +100)</li>
</ul>
<table class="border-spacing-2 table-auto border-collapse border border-black" style="width: 692px;">
<thead class="article-view__table-headers">
<tr class="">
<th class="" style="width: 427px;">Regular Season Stats</th>
<th class="" style="width: 140px;">Panthers</th>
<th class="" style="width: 125px;">Maple Leafs</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Goals For per 60 minutes (5-on-5)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.32 (22nd)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.66 (8th)</div></td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.09 (4th)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.01 (3rd)</div></td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Expected Goals per 60 (5-on-5)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.76 (6th)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.66 (8th)</div></td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Expected Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.44 (2nd)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">2.57 (16th)</div></td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">High-Danger Scoring Chances % (5-on-5)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">53.16 (7th)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">50.65% (15th)</div></td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Goal Differential</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">+29 (10th)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">+37 (8th)</div></td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Power Play %</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">23.5% (13th)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">24.8% (9th)</div></td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Penalty Kill %</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">80.7% (10th)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">77.9% (17th)</div></td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Save Percentage (Sergei Bobrovsky vs. Anthony Stolarz)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">.906</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">.926</div></td>
</tr>
<tr class="">
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 427px;">
<div class="w-fit">Goals Saved Above Expectation (Bobrovsky vs. Stolarz)</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 140px;">
<div class="w-fit">+7.2</div></td>
<td class="border-collapse whitespace-nowrap border border-black p-1" style="width: 125px;">
<div class="w-fit">+25.8</div></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2><strong>Florida Panthers</strong></h2>
After allowing 13 goals against in the first three games of this series, Sergei Bobrovsky and the Panthers battened things down in Game 4 en route to a shutout victory.

Florida allowed only six high-danger scoring chances in Game 4 in even-strength play and only 1.16 expected goals against. The Panthers allowed only 2.25 xGA/60 during their 2024 Stanley Cup run, which suggests it's not overly surprising that they were able to clean things up defensively compared to earlier in the series.

The Panthers' dominant duo of Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart had their best game of the series in Game 4, showing off why they are both Selke Trophy nominees. The Leafs generated next to nothing when they were on the ice, after faring quite well against the Barkov line <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/matthews-won-minutes-easily-barkov-game-1-captain-matchup-game-2">in Game 1</a>-2 in Toronto.

It has been confirmed that <a href="https://x.com/Arunthings/status/1922686669561405761">Evan Rodrigues will miss this matchup</a>, and Jesper Boqvist will likely take over his spot on the top line.

Sergei Bobrovsky had his best start of the series in Game 4, stopping all 23 shots faced. While the Leafs generated very little at even strength in Game 4, Bobrovsky made some high-quality saves in timely moments while his team was shorthanded. He now holds a -1.6 GSAx rating and .888 save percentage this postseason.
<h2><strong>Toronto Maple Leafs</strong></h2>
The Leafs' top offensive stars failed to deliver in Game 4, and, as always seems to be the case, that has become the main talking point entering this critical matchup. Auston Matthews failed to convert on any of his seven shot attempts, and is now shooting just 9.3% in his career during the playoffs, compared to a mark of 15.8% in the regular season.
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330">With a cap hit of over 13 million dollars, fans and media are right to expect Matthews to produce. In terms of true goal differential, though, the Leafs' top line has been downright excellent this season, and it seems the bottom six is not drawing enough criticism. No recent cup winner has had a bottom-six play to a negative goal differential in the playoffs.</div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330">Momentary lapses in production from the Leafs' top stars would not always stand out so greatly if the team was receiving better play from <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/onus-matthews-marner-toronto-maple-leafs-lack-depth-scoring-consistent-issue">further down the lineup card</a>.</div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330">The team <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/scenes-toronto-maple-leafs-morning-skate-ekman-larsson-play-game-5-berube-hints-game-time-decisions">did not state any potential lineup changes ahead of tonight's matchup</a>, but Craig Berube could adjust his bottom six, which seems quite reasonable.</div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
<div data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330">Anthony Stolarz is reportedly progressing and could potentially play in Game 6, but Joseph Woll is likely to remain the starter in this matchup. Woll holds a +0.4 GSAx rating and .893 save percentage this postseason.</div>
<h2><strong>Best Bets for Panthers vs Leafs Game 2</strong></h2>
While the Panthers have owned more of the overall play in this series, it is entirely reasonable that this series is knotted at two entering Game 5.

The Leafs have been more comfortable playing in the defensive zone under Berube this season, which is surely in part due to the fact that they have received such strong play in goal from Stolarz and Woll. They have high-end offensive talents to convert on chances at a high rate and have done so this postseason.

The Panthers were very sharp defensively at even strength in Game 4, after some surprisingly loose defensive play earlier on in the series. While the Leafs are capable of better offensive play than we saw in Game 4, the Panthers have been a dominant side defensively in each of the last two postseasons, and it seems more likely that they will continue to play at higher level in that regard than we saw early on in this series.

In terms of sides, it would be Toronto or pass for me, as this matchup feels like more of a coin flip than oddsmakers are expecting.

Rather than pick a side, though, I'd prefer to bet this game to feature under 1.5 first-period goals, a play that was effective for us at the tail end of the Ottawa series. In the highest pressure situations, teams tend to play a more conservative style and look to keep things tight defensively, and in general it's been the offence that has dried up for this Leafs core in the later games of series historically.

<strong>Best Bet: First Period Under 1.5 Total Goals -110 (Sports Interaction, Play to -120)</strong>

NHL betting preview (May 14): Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 5 predictions

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