The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to extend their winning streak to six games Thursday evening in Carolina. Despite their strong results of late, the Leafs are currently the largest betting underdog they have been throughout the entire season in this matchup at +151.
The Carolina Hurricanes have once again been one of the NHL&#8217;s best home teams this season, sporting a record of 15-5-0 entering this matchup. They are just 4-5-1 in the last 10 games, however, and have fallen to third place in the Metropolitan Division standings.
I&#8217;ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.
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Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes Odds
<ul class="gmail-mb-5 gmail-list-disc gmail-pl-8">
<li class="gmail-">Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: +151</li>
<li class="gmail-">Hurricanes Moneyline Odds: -168</li>
<li class="gmail-">Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-174), Hurricanes +1.5 (+152)</li>
<li class="gmail-">Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -109, under -103)</li>
</ul>
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs were able to earn four points from their home-and-home set with the Philadelphia Flyers, as they hung on for a 3-2 victory on Tuesday night in Philadelphia after taking the first matchup in overtime on Sunday. They have taken steps forward in one-goal games this season, and have earned a reputation for finding ways to win closely contested games.
While a win is a win, Tuesday&#8217;s performance is not likely to be a winning formula very often. The Flyers held a 14-6 edge in high-danger chances on Tuesday night and outshot the Leafs 32-17.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
Oh my god. 
Matvei Michkov just put a goal on a platter for Owen Tippett and he missed a wide open net. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Flyers?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Flyers</a> <a href="https://t.co/nJeu6OGH2P">pic.twitter.com/nJeu6OGH2P</a>
&mdash; Flyers Nation (@FlyersNation) <a href="https://twitter.com/FlyersNation/status/1876828332949487937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 8, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Moments like this can swing a game, and also swing the public perception of a team as it is natural to be results-orientated. By the time the puck arrives to Tippett after a perfect seam pass the Leafs have already made a key defensive breakdown. The fact that Tippett happened to miss a should-be goal changes the viewpoint from the Leafs finally collapsing after a subpar showing, to one where we are talking about another gutty one-goal win.
Over the last 15 games, the Leafs have allowed 3.48 xGA/60, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NHL in that span. They have allowed 30.55 shots against per 60 in that span, and have benefitted from the league&#8217;s ninth-highest save percentage.
There are arguments to be made that head coach Craig Berube has instilled better defensive tendencies in front of goal. The Leafs appear to be clearing out the net-front area better than in seasons past and have at times pressured shooters in the middle of the ice more effectively.
Those factors may have helped the Leafs&#8217; goaltenders achieve better results this season, but it&#8217;s been pretty clear that the team&#8217;s greatest improvement compared to last season has been due to the play of their goaltenders. Toronto ranks third in the league with a .906 save percentage this season, and at the halfway point of last season, they ranked 21st.
Berube has opted to shuffle his defensive pairings for this matchup, as Chris Tanev looks to be bumping up onto the top pair to play alongside Morgan Rielly, while Oliver Ekman-Larsson will drop to the second unit with Phillipe Myers. Jake McCabe will remain sidelined with an upper-body injury.
While the Leafs may not be quite as dominant in goal suppression moving forward, they should have room to grow offensively with Auston Matthews back in the lineup and in productive form. Matthews has put up seven points in three games since returning and has helped Matthew Knies return to form offensively as well. Knies has also put up seven points over the last three games playing alongside Mitch Marner and Matthews at even strength and appears likely to remain in that role tonight.
Ryan Reaves and Max Pacioretty appear to be coming out of the lineup in this matchup in favour of Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg.
Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the starting goaltender. He holds a .915 save percentage and 2.46 GAA in 20 games played this season.
Carolina Hurricanes
We haven&#8217;t seen many stretches of sub-.500 play during head coach Rod Brind&#8217;Amour&#8217;s tenure as Hurricanes head coach, but his team is currently in the midst of one with a record of 4-5-1 over the last 10 games. The losses have come mainly against elite teams (Washington, Florida, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay), but those are still the type of games that a Stanley Cup favourite is supposed to find success in.
Due to a combination of shaky finishing and suspect goaltending, the Hurricanes have failed to live up to the expectations of their fantastic regular seasons in recent years.
Martin Necas started the season on fire and powered what looked to be an improved Hurricanes attack, but over the last t10 games they have shot just 8.1% and scored only 2.4 goals per game. Many of their recent matchups have come against elite defensive teams, and they still have generated an 11th-best 3.36 xGF/60.
Shayne Gostisbehere&#8217;s absence from the back end and top powerplay hasn&#8217;t helped matters, as the 31-year-old had displayed elite puck movement in netting 27 points in 35 games this season.
Pyotr Kochetkov is expected to get the start in goal for Carolina in this matchup. He holds a .902 save % and 2.50 GAA in 26 starts this season.
The Hurricanes have looked to play a more offensive game this season, which makes sense based on their recent playoff eliminations, but it has come at a cost from a defensive perspective. After regularly being one of the league&#8217;s very best defensive teams in recent years, they hold an 11th-ranked xGA/60 of 2.99 this season and have allowed 2.80 goals against where it counts.
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Best Bets for Leafs vs Hurricanes
Given the vastly differing recent records of these two teams, the Leafs&#8217; hefty +151 price tag certainly looks a little surprising. Oddsmakers are crediting the idea that the Leafs&#8217; current process does not look likely to yield such dominant results moving forward, as they have leaned on a combination of elite finishing and excellent goaltending to win games that look to be evenly contested. Those games have also come against a weak slate of opponents, specifically in terms of offensive upside.
The Hurricanes are at the other end of the spectrum, as they have played a tough schedule of late and have struggled to finish a strong output of scoring opportunities.
The Leafs have been better defensively this season and are benefitting from some of the league&#8217;s best goaltending, but I&#8217;m still not sold they will be quite this dominant in terms of goals allowed moving forward, particularly with McCabe sidelined. The Hurricanes have been generating a ton of chances of late and could be likely to find positive offensive regression in this matchup.
While Carolina has earned a reputation as an elite defensive team under Brind&#8217;Amour, it has been marred by shaky goaltending this season and has not been as entirely dominant defensively as we have seen the last few seasons. There is a lot to like about the Leafs&#8217; top-six right now with Matthews back in the mix, and I think we will see them manage a respectable offensive output in this matchup.
At -109, I see in value backing this game to go over 5.5 total goals, and would back the over to -115.
Best Bets: Over 5.5 Goals -109 (Pinnacle, Play to -115)

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to extend their winning streak to six games Thursday evening in Carolina. Despite their strong results of late, the Leafs are currently the largest betting underdog they have been throughout the entire season in this matchup at +151.

The Carolina Hurricanes have once again been one of the NHL's best home teams this season, sporting a record of 15-5-0 entering this matchup. They are just 4-5-1 in the last 10 games, however, and have fallen to third place in the Metropolitan Division standings.

I'll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.
<div class="bam-inline-promotion"></div>
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes Odds
<ul class="gmail-mb-5 gmail-list-disc gmail-pl-8">
 	<li class="gmail-">Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: +151</li>
 	<li class="gmail-">Hurricanes Moneyline Odds: -168</li>
 	<li class="gmail-">Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-174), Hurricanes +1.5 (+152)</li>
 	<li class="gmail-">Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -109, under -103)</li>
</ul>
Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs were able to earn four points from their home-and-home set with the Philadelphia Flyers, as they hung on for a 3-2 victory on Tuesday night in Philadelphia after taking the first matchup in overtime on Sunday. They have taken steps forward in one-goal games this season, and have earned a reputation for finding ways to win closely contested games.

While a win is a win, Tuesday's performance is not likely to be a winning formula very often. The Flyers held a 14-6 edge in high-danger chances on Tuesday night and outshot the Leafs 32-17.

https://twitter.com/flyersnation/status/1876828332949487937?s=51&amp;t=jnkCQzfXiGyXqCWVEtGobg

Moments like this can swing a game, and also swing the public perception of a team as it is natural to be results-orientated. By the time the puck arrives to Tippett after a perfect seam pass the Leafs have already made a key defensive breakdown. The fact that Tippett happened to miss a should-be goal changes the viewpoint from the Leafs finally collapsing after a subpar showing, to one where we are talking about another gutty one-goal win.

Over the last 15 games, the Leafs have allowed 3.48 xGA/60, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NHL in that span. They have allowed 30.55 shots against per 60 in that span, and have benefitted from the league's ninth-highest save percentage.

There are arguments to be made that head coach Craig Berube has instilled better defensive tendencies in front of goal. The Leafs appear to be clearing out the net-front area better than in seasons past and have at times pressured shooters in the middle of the ice more effectively.

Those factors may have helped the Leafs' goaltenders achieve better results this season, but it's been pretty clear that the team's greatest improvement compared to last season has been due to the play of their goaltenders. Toronto ranks third in the league with a .906 save percentage this season, and at the halfway point of last season, they ranked 21st.

Berube has opted to shuffle his defensive pairings for this matchup, as Chris Tanev looks to be bumping up onto the top pair to play alongside Morgan Rielly, while Oliver Ekman-Larsson will drop to the second unit with Phillipe Myers. Jake McCabe will remain sidelined with an upper-body injury.

While the Leafs may not be quite as dominant in goal suppression moving forward, they should have room to grow offensively with Auston Matthews back in the lineup and in productive form. Matthews has put up seven points in three games since returning and has helped Matthew Knies return to form offensively as well. Knies has also put up seven points over the last three games playing alongside Mitch Marner and Matthews at even strength and appears likely to remain in that role tonight.

Ryan Reaves and Max Pacioretty appear to be coming out of the lineup in this matchup in favour of Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg.

Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the starting goaltender. He holds a .915 save percentage and 2.46 GAA in 20 games played this season.

Carolina Hurricanes

We haven't seen many stretches of sub-.500 play during head coach Rod Brind'Amour's tenure as Hurricanes head coach, but his team is currently in the midst of one with a record of 4-5-1 over the last 10 games. The losses have come mainly against elite teams (Washington, Florida, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Tampa Bay), but those are still the type of games that a Stanley Cup favourite is supposed to find success in.

Due to a combination of shaky finishing and suspect goaltending, the Hurricanes have failed to live up to the expectations of their fantastic regular seasons in recent years.

Martin Necas started the season on fire and powered what looked to be an improved Hurricanes attack, but over the last t10 games they have shot just 8.1% and scored only 2.4 goals per game. Many of their recent matchups have come against elite defensive teams, and they still have generated an 11th-best 3.36 xGF/60.

Shayne Gostisbehere's absence from the back end and top powerplay hasn't helped matters, as the 31-year-old had displayed elite puck movement in netting 27 points in 35 games this season.

Pyotr Kochetkov is expected to get the start in goal for Carolina in this matchup. He holds a .902 save % and 2.50 GAA in 26 starts this season.

The Hurricanes have looked to play a more offensive game this season, which makes sense based on their recent playoff eliminations, but it has come at a cost from a defensive perspective. After regularly being one of the league's very best defensive teams in recent years, they hold an 11th-ranked xGA/60 of 2.99 this season and have allowed 2.80 goals against where it counts.
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Best Bets for Leafs vs Hurricanes

Given the vastly differing recent records of these two teams, the Leafs' hefty +151 price tag certainly looks a little surprising. Oddsmakers are crediting the idea that the Leafs' current process does not look likely to yield such dominant results moving forward, as they have leaned on a combination of elite finishing and excellent goaltending to win games that look to be evenly contested. Those games have also come against a weak slate of opponents, specifically in terms of offensive upside.

The Hurricanes are at the other end of the spectrum, as they have played a tough schedule of late and have struggled to finish a strong output of scoring opportunities.

The Leafs have been better defensively this season and are benefitting from some of the league's best goaltending, but I'm still not sold they will be quite this dominant in terms of goals allowed moving forward, particularly with McCabe sidelined. The Hurricanes have been generating a ton of chances of late and could be likely to find positive offensive regression in this matchup.

While Carolina has earned a reputation as an elite defensive team under Brind'Amour, it has been marred by shaky goaltending this season and has not been as entirely dominant defensively as we have seen the last few seasons. There is a lot to like about the Leafs' top-six right now with Matthews back in the mix, and I think we will see them manage a respectable offensive output in this matchup.

At -109, I see in value backing this game to go over 5.5 total goals, and would back the over to -115.

Best Bets: Over 5.5 Goals -109 (Pinnacle, Play to -115)

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